Placing the chip
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Start here · Explainer 20

One chip, five measures

IBM says its 2 nm chip technology can fit up to 50 billion transistors on a chip the size of a fingernail. This page shows what a chip like that takes, in five measures, each from the publisher that measured it: how small, how fast, how repeatable, how costly and how widely shared out.

50 billionSmall: transistors, at most, on IBM's 2 nm chip, 2021
27Fast: doublings since 1971, our arithmetic
400 to 1,400Repeatable: steps to make one chip
US$ 165.9 bnCostly: chipmaking equipment, SEMI's 2026 forecast
70 or moreShared out: border crossings a chip could make
Scene: one die on a fingertip, and a thread from it to a globe for each measure. The die is drawn about 10 mm across, a size of ours: IBM states none. Transistors: IBM (May 2021). Doublings: our arithmetic from Intel's and Nvidia's counts. Steps: SIA and BCG (April 2021). Equipment: SEMI (14 July 2026). Crossings: the Global Semiconductor Alliance and Accenture (2020). All sources are listed at the end.
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01 · Small

Up to 50 billion on a fingernail.

IBM says its 2 nm chip of May 2021 can fit up to 50 billion transistors on a chip the size of a fingernail. Follow one down: the chip, a hair lying across it, the rows of gates, one transistor and its atoms.

The industry roadmap's "2 nm" row puts a gate every 48 nm, so 1,667 to 2,083 of them stand side by side across a hair 80,000 to 100,000 nm wide. Each transistor in that row has 3 sheets of silicon 6 nm thick, with atoms 0.235 nm apart.

In view, top to bottom
about 42 mm
IBM (6 May 2021) states no die size, so none is computed and the drawn 10 mm is ours. Gate pitch and sheets: IEEE IRDS 2024, More Moore, table MM-7, the 2025 column. Hair: nano.gov. Atoms: Princeton University, MAE 324. Gates across a hair (80,000 ÷ 48 and 100,000 ÷ 48) and the view's size: our arithmetic. Each stage is to scale; the zoom between them is ours.
02 · Fast

27 doublings in 55 years.

Intel's 4004 held 2,300 transistors in 1971. Nvidia gives its Rubin GPU 336 billion across two dies in 2026. That is 27 doublings in 55 years, one about every 2 years (our arithmetic).

Gordon Moore wrote in 1965 of "a rate of roughly a factor of two per year", and in 1975 that "the new slope might approximate a doubling every two years". On a linear scale, every chip before 2016 sits on the floor.

Blackwell and Rubin count two dies in one package; every chip to 2020 is one die, and AMD's pages do not say for the MI355X. Rubin is announced: Nvidia says it is in full production, with products from partners in the second half of 2026.

Counts and dates as each maker states them: Intel, Nvidia, Apple and AMD, listed at the end. Moore: Electronics (1965) and the IEDM digest (1975), in Intel's copies. Doublings (27.12) and the dotted line, 2,300 doubling every 2 years: our arithmetic.
03 · Repeatable

Yields multiply.

A chip passes through 400 to 1,400 steps over about 12 weeks, 14 to 20 for advanced processes (SIA and BCG, 2021). The losses multiply: "the overall die yield has a product form", in Robert Leachman's words.

At 999 in 1,000 a step, about 37 chips in 100 survive 1,000 steps (our arithmetic). Set both numbers.

Chips that work
36.77%
A step fails
1 in 1,000

One chance per chip per step. Real yield also depends on the die's size and where defects cluster, which What a chip costs takes up, and on mishandling that can lose a whole wafer.

SIA and BCG (April 2021). Robert Leachman, UC Berkeley IEOR 130 (2014). The share is our arithmetic, each step's success raised to the number of steps: 36.77% at 99.9% and 90.48% at 99.99% over 1,000. The wafer is ours: 612 dies of 10 by 10 mm, greyed in a fixed random order.
04 · Costly

US$ 455 million of machines a day.

Equipment makers are forecast to sell US$ 165.9 billion of chipmaking machines in 2026, a record by SEMI's word (14 July 2026): about US$ 455 million a day, our arithmetic. Chips sold for US$ 795.6 billion in 2025 (WSTS). One block is US$ 1 billion.

For scale: TSMC's 2026 capital budget is US$ 60 billion to US$ 64 billion. Designing a fairly large 2 nm chip from scratch costs US$ 725 million by an IBS estimate Tom's Hardware reported in 2023, for a company "that does not have any IP".

WSTS's calculation after the second quarter puts 2026 at US$ 1,655 billion, about 108% growth by its own figure. Chip sales swing from year to year: The memory cycle shows how.

SEMI's mid-year forecast via PR Newswire (14 July 2026); wafer fab equipment within it, US$ 143.9 billion. WSTS: Spring 2026 forecast (2 June 2026) and the second quarter (6 August 2026). TSMC: 2Q26 earnings call (16 July 2026); a budget, buildings included, so not set against SEMI's total. Tom's Hardware (31 August 2023), reporting International Business Strategies.
05 · Shared out, 1 of 4

70 or more border crossings.

A chip could cross international borders 70 or more times before it reaches a customer, by the count of the Global Semiconductor Alliance and Accenture (2020). They say "could", and state no method for the count.

SIA and BCG drew one illustrative route, for a phone's application processor: a European licence and a US design; silicon from the US, an ingot in Japan, wafers sliced in South Korea; tools from the US, Japan and Europe; a foundry in Taiwan; packaging in Malaysia; a phone assembled in China and sold in the US.

Crossings: GSA and Accenture (2020). Route: SIA and BCG (April 2021), Exhibit 12, which they call illustrative; the arrows join regions, as explainer 15 draws them, and count no crossings. The map puts the Pacific in the middle.
05 · Shared out, 2 of 4

Where the chips are made.

In 2019, 92% of the world's capacity below 10 nm was in Taiwan and 8% in South Korea (SIA and BCG, 2021). Their 2024 report counts logic below 10 nm: Taiwan 69% and South Korea 31% in 2022, and by their projection for 2032, Taiwan 47%, the United States 28% and South Korea 9%.

Across all chips, the 2022 shares run from 8% in Europe to 24% in mainland China. Pick a year and a kind.

The 2019 and 2022 figures come from two reports with different categories, so they are not one series. 2032 is SIA and BCG's projection.

SIA and BCG: Exhibit 17 (April 2021) and Exhibit 6 (May 2024), whose rows may not total 100% because of rounding. Its "Other" includes Malaysia, Singapore and India; that column stands on Southeast Asia. Regions read from the exhibit's colours.
05 · Shared out, 3 of 4

14 governments, each with an amount.

Since 2020, 14 governments, the EU among them, have put a stated amount behind a chips law or programme. The map lights each on its date. Amounts are converted at 2025's average rates, our arithmetic, beside each government's own figure.

  • China 4 August 2020 no stated amountState Council policy No. 8: no income tax for years 1 to 10 for fabs at 28 nm or below
  • India 15 December 2021 USD 8.7 billionpublished as Rs 76,000 croreSemicon India programme, approved by the Cabinet
  • Canada 28 February 2022 USD 107 millionpublished as CAD 150 millionSemiconductor Challenge Callout
  • Italy 1 March 2022 USD 169 million for 2022, then USD 564 million a year to 2030published as EUR 150 million for 2022, then EUR 500 million a year to 2030Decree-Law No. 17, a fund for microprocessor technology
  • Japan from FY2022 USD 15 billionpublished as JPY 2.1706 trillionSpecified Semiconductor Funding Program
  • Spain 24 May 2022 USD 14 billion to 2027published as EUR 12,250 million to 2027PERTE Chip, approved by the Council of Ministers
  • France 12 July 2022 more than USD 5.6 billionpublished as more than EUR 5 billionFrance 2030, electronics as a whole
  • United States 9 August 2022 USD 52.7 billionCHIPS and Science Act, with a 25% investment tax credit
  • Taiwan 19 January 2023 no stated amountStatute for Industrial Innovation, Article 10-2: tax credits of 25% for R&D, 5% for equipment
  • South Korea 11 April 2023 no stated amounttax credit for national strategic technology facilities raised to 15% for large and middle-standing firms, 25% for SMEs
  • United Kingdom 19 May 2023 up to USD 1.3 billionpublished as up to GBP 1 billionNational Semiconductor Strategy, over a decade
  • Germany 9 August 2023 about USD 4.5 billionpublished as about EUR 4 billionthe Cabinet's climate and transformation fund plan, for 2024 alone
  • European Union 21 September 2023 more than USD 48 billionpublished as more than EUR 43 billionChips Act in force; the Commission says it "should result in" public investment of that size
  • Taiwan 2 November 2023 USD 9.6 billionpublished as NT$300 billionTaiwan Chip-based Industrial Innovation Program, 2024 to 2033
  • South Korea 23 May 2024 USD 18 billionpublished as KRW 26 trillionsemiconductor support package, loans at preferential rates included
  • China 24 May 2024 USD 48 billionpublished as RMB 344 billionNational IC Industry Investment Fund Phase III, registered capital, as a founder (ICBC) filed it; the date from China Daily
  • Malaysia 28 May 2024 at least USD 5.8 billionpublished as at least RM25 billionNational Semiconductor Strategy, fiscal support
  • Japan 11 November 2024 USD 67 billion or morepublished as JPY 10 trillion or morepublic support by FY2030, AI and semiconductors together
  • United States 4 July 2025 no stated amountPublic Law 119-21: the investment tax credit raised from 25% to 35% from 2026
Listed: a national government or the EU, a chips law or programme from 2020 on, and an amount it stated; 4 entries are tax measures with no total. France's covers all electronics, Japan's of 2024 AI and chips together, and a member state's amount can overlap the EU's. Each government's pages are listed at the end; China's amount is a founder's filing (ICBC), dated by China Daily. Rates: the ECB's reference rates, 2025 means, the Taiwan dollar through the Federal Reserve's H.10. Translations and conversions are ours.
05 · Shared out, 4 of 4

Rules on what may leave.

4 governments published rules on exporting chips, chipmaking tools or their materials from 2019 to 2025: Japan, the United States, the Netherlands and China. Each is listed by date in the government's own category; any reason it gave is on its own page.

  • Japan 4 July 2019individual licences for fluorinated polyimide, resist and hydrogen fluoride to South Korea
  • United States 7 October 2022controls on advanced computing chips and on chipmaking items
  • Netherlands 8 March 2023letter to Parliament: national controls on the most advanced DUV immersion lithography and deposition
  • Japan 21 July 2023South Korea added back to Appended Table 3, the list the 2019 release calls white countries
  • Japan 23 July 202323 items of chipmaking equipment under control, to all destinations
  • China 1 August 2023gallium and germanium items need a licence to export
  • Netherlands 1 September 2023a licence to export advanced chipmaking equipment, by the regulation of 23 June 2023
  • United States 17 October 2023a package updating the 2022 controls on chips and chipmaking equipment
  • Netherlands 7 September 2024more types of equipment under the national measure
  • United States 2 December 202424 types of chipmaking equipment, 3 software tools and high-bandwidth memory
  • China 3 December 2024gallium, germanium, antimony and superhard materials to the United States in principle not licensed
  • United States 15 January 2025the AI Diffusion rule: chips and AI model weights
  • Netherlands 1 April 2025measuring and inspection equipment added
  • United States 13 May 2025rescission of the AI Diffusion rule announced
  • China 9 November 2025the December 2024 clause on these materials suspended until 27 November 2026
The Bureau of Industry and Security and the Federal Register (United States); METI (Japan); the Government of the Netherlands and the Staatscourant; MOFCOM (China). Translations from Japanese, Dutch and Chinese are ours.
06 · One chip

All five at once.

One chip needs all five measures together. Small but not repeatable is a lab result. Repeatable but not affordable is a prototype. Affordable, but made in one place, depends on that place.

Read further, measure by measure:

Small 07 What "2 nm" means · 06 Wrapping the gate · 05 Sculpting in atoms · 09 Chips on chips · 19 How far can lithography go?

Fast 18 A billion ticks a second · 17 From switch to software · 12 How fast can you build a fab?

Repeatable 02 Anatomy of a fab · 03 Writing with light · 04 The impossible machine · 08 Finding the defect · 10 What a chip costs

Costly 11 What a fab buys · 13 Only three left · 14 The memory cycle

Shared out 15 Where a chip gets made · 01 From sand to wafer · 16 Power and water

Each ring carries its chapter's one number, with the publisher in that chapter.